Written By JR Robinson

“The best people in America live in this state. They deserve better numbers than these.”

That is how David Hatley opens his 30-second ad. No name, no logo, no handshake. Just numbers, a five-part plan, and a challenge to every Tennessean who has been told this is as good as it gets.

So let’s do something campaign ads rarely invite you to do. Let’s check the numbers.

Numbers like these are easy to shrug off, because we hear them so often. But every statistic is a kid in a classroom, a family on a street, a taxpayer at a kitchen table. Behind each one is a choice somebody made.

Dead last in school funding

The ad says Tennessee is “dead last in the country for school funding.” According to a National Education Association report covered by WVLT, that is correct: Tennessee ranked last, at about $12,147 per student against a national average of $19,393. Per-student spending fell nearly 10 percent from the year before, when the state ranked 48th.

Do the math on that gap. It is more than $7,000 per student, every year. In a classroom of 25 children, that is over $181,000 a year that other states spend and we do not.

Hatley’s answer is three words: “Back the teachers.”

Among the most violent in America

The ad says Tennessee has the “fourth most violent crime in America.” Rankings shift by year and source. USAFacts, using FBI data, put Tennessee third for violent crime in 2024, at 592 offenses per 100,000 people. Either way, the point stands: we are near the top of a list nobody wants to lead.

Behind every rate is a family that got a phone call nobody should get. They do not care which party was in charge. They want someone to pick up the case and finish it.

His answer: “Fund the detectives.” Crime is solved by people who investigate it, and that costs money.

A tax bill with no ceiling

The ad says property taxes are rising faster than any other state’s and says “Our kids can’t buy a house.” We could not confirm the “faster than any other state” ranking, and you should be skeptical of any ad that claims it without a source. Here is what we can confirm. The Beacon Center of Tennessee reports that Tennessee is one of only four states with no statewide limit on property tax increases. It also reports that Nashville’s property tax revenue grew about 75 percent from 2015 to 2024, well ahead of inflation.

For a family on a fixed income, a tax bill that can climb with no ceiling is not an abstraction. It can be the difference between staying in the house and selling it. That is the problem the last two promises are aimed at.

Hatley’s answers: “Build the homes. Cap the tax.”

Five promises, one test

Fund the detectives. Elect the auditor. Back the teachers. Build the homes. Cap the tax.

Judge them like you would any contractor’s estimate. Is each promise specific? Can you tell later whether it happened? Which ones cost money, and where does it come from? Those questions apply to every candidate on the ballot, not only this one.

Then ask the bigger one. If the numbers in that ad are even close, and the school funding number is documented, then someone has been running this state while those numbers got worse. Hatley’s message is that the same two parties keep asking for your vote and keep leaving the same results on your doorstep.

Same Tennessee. Different path.

“None of this is complicated,” the ad ends. “Let’s take our state back.”

Maybe it is more complicated than thirty seconds can say. But the people who pay these taxes, send their kids to these schools, and walk these streets are the ones who get to decide whether the answer is more of the same.

You do not have to give up a single belief to cross a party line. You only have to decide that, this time, results matter more than the letter next to the name.

Your move

Watch the ad. Read the book, which is free. Then check vote.tn.gov for early voting and your polling place. Election Day is November 3.

Paid for by Hatley for Governor, Joe Cronin, Treasurer.